First Quarter Market Trends

TMLS has released the market trends report for the first quarter of 2008. Here are the highlights for Durham County:

• Job growth continues, although it has slowed throughout the Triangle. From Feb. '06 through Feb. '07, job growth was 3.1%. From Feb. '07 through Feb. '08, the growth fell to 1.2%. This slowdown tells the tale of the Triangle housing market better than just about any other measure. Our real estate market has traditionally been fueled by people relocating to the area for work or school. When there are fewer jobs being created, there are fewer reasons for people to come here.
• Inventory is up, sale prices are down. Inventory has increased by 6%, and sale prices are down 5%. The average sale price in the first quarter was $194,400.
• Property is still appreciating. This is probably the biggest bright spot. While many areas of the country are seeing property values collapse, we are still seeing overall appreciation. The average appreciation for resale housing in Durham County was 4.22%. Appreciation can vary widely by neighborhood. Based on MLS data, Duke Park saw the best run, with an average per year appreciation of 13.72%. Duke Forest and Hope Valley rounded out the top three. At the bottom of the positive scale was Eno Trace, with .85% average appreciation. The MLS list was comprised of about 30 neighborhoods. There are obviously more neighborhoods than that in Durham, and I’m very curious about the rest of the list – are we looking at negative appreciation in some neighborhoods not listed in the report?
• Pending sales are off. There is now lots to choose from, but buyers are not taking the plunge. Pending sales are off 22%, and closed sales are down 21%. Durham County fared slightly better than the rest of the Triangle, where pending sales and closed sales were down 27% and 24%, respectively.
  The right homes are selling. Combined with the appreciation we’re seeing, the homes that sell are selling faster than they were last year – 87 days on the market compared with 94 days for the same period last year.

Top 10 Selling Developments

1. Woodcroft
2. Hope Valley Farms
3. Grove Park
4. Keystone Crossing
5. Parkwood
6. Duke Forest
7. Grandale
8. Hope Valley
9. Stratford Lakes
10. American Village

Top Appreciating Subdivisions

1. Duke Park
2. Duke Forest
3. Hope Valley
4. Finley Forest
5. Falconbridge
6. Downing Creek
7. Woodlake
8. Chancellors Ridge
9. Parkwood
10. Wyndcross